Leave it to the Catholic News Service to come up with the best line about the drought that has gripped large portions of the U.S. this summer, including Georgia: “There’s a lot of praying for rain going on, but those prayers have yet to be answered.”
While scattered showers in July reduced the severe drought in south Georgia, dry conditions increased in north Georgia, and temperatures ranging from blistering to sweltering have continued to plague the state. In addition, about two-thirds of Georgia remains caught in “extreme” drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a joint project of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln, the USDA, and NOAA. Moreover, small portions of the state have reached the “exceptional stage”, the worst drought condition on the Monitor.
Due to the drought, precipitation in Georgia for the last six months is 10 to 15 inches below normal, according to the NDMC. Since normal precipitation ranges from 40 to 50 inches, parts of the state are as much as 30 percent below where they should be.
As a result, drought impact reports are popping up across Georgia. As of August 8, the NDMC had received 56 drought impact reports originating in the state. From cotton farmers postponing planting, to wildfires statewide, to dried up streams in the southern half of Georgia, to groundwater levels reaching near-record lows along the coastal plain, the reports show that the drought is impacting the state economically as well as environmentally.
Brian Fuchs, climatologist with the NDMC, says the drought has its roots in the climatic phenomenon known as La Niña.
A “La Niña situation is a cooling of the waters of the western Pacific Ocean. When this happens, weather patterns change. Last fall, we experienced a La Niña situation, which created a dry signal in the southern tip of the U.S.
It turned out to be one of the strongest La Niñas on record. La Niñas usually dissipate by the end of winter or the first part of spring, but this one lingered into summer, which was when the heat kicked in. That’s the reason this drought has been the way it is.”
Even with precipitation across the state ranging from “abnormally dry” to “exceptional,” and despite agricultural impacts and increased danger of fire, the gravest effects of a drought, such as dropping water tables and water supply issues, have not yet come into play, Fuchs says. For that to happen, the drought would need to continue into 2012.
Data from NOAA suggests such an event is possible, as the weather service two weeks ago increased the chance of La Niña returning this year to 50 percent.
“If we experience another La Niña, the southern tip of the U.S., where the drought is already causing a lot of issues, would be prime for a multiyear drought,” Fuchs says.
Should the drought persist, the State of Georgia is prepared to respond. In a 23-page document titled “Georgia Drought Management Plan,” the state outlines the conditions that define a drought and trigger specific responses. The former involve precise reservoir, groundwater, and precipitation levels, among other criteria; the latter include restrictions on outdoor water use and guidelines for “conservation pricing”, among other recommended actions.
Although no regions in Georgia have enacted the strictest response measures, they might need to at some point, especially if La Niña returns, so the NDMC will be keeping an eye on the Georgia drought as summer turns to fall, and relevant agencies in Georgia will be watching the data the state’s automated weather stations are gathering in the hopes of seeing a turnaround.
The best solution to the drought, Fuchs says, is a good soaking. Like the Catholics who are praying for rain, he’s still looking for a downpour.
“We keep hearing about how active the tropical season is going to be, and a number of storms have spun up, but they fell apart almost as quickly as they appeared. For areas in the southeast, a land-falling tropical storm or tropical depression sitting over an area for a few days can improve a drought situation in a hurry, so my hope is we’ll see a couple of tropical depressions park themselves over some of these drought areas and do a number on the precipitation deficits.”
To view a map of the drought levels in Georgia, visit droughtmonitor.unl.edu, then click on the southeast portion of the U.S., and then click on Georgia. The map is updated each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Google “Georgia Drought Management Plan” to access the state’s response plan for times of drought. Adobe Acrobat or a different PDF viewer is required.