Somewhere in the South African bush, a leopard had found an effective place to protect her prize.
High in a tree, beyond the reach of prowling hyenas, she’d stashed a kill from earlier in the day.
Jessica Lautz couldn’t help but see a parallel.
Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research for the National Association of Realtors, had recently returned from a safari with her husband when she spoke remotely to Greater Chattanooga Realtors during its annual Economic Outlook Breakfast on Aug. 7. Her presentation featured photos of zebras, wildebeests, elephants and a leopard, which she sometimes used as entry points into the economics of buying and selling a home.
The leopard’s hidden cache reminded Lautz of the wealth homeowners have accumulated in their properties. In Chattanooga, that cache has become substantial.
The typical Chattanooga homeowner has gained more than $150,000 in home value over the past five years, according to data Lautz presented.
But there’s another side to that accumulation of wealth: The same rising values that have benefited people who already own homes have made it difficult for those trying to buy one.
That tension remains at the heart of Chattanooga’s housing market in 2026, even as the latest numbers suggest the market is moving toward greater balance.
The number of homes for sale across the Chattanooga region jumped 25.8% in June from a year earlier, reaching 4,048. New listings rose 7.2% to 1,555, while pending sales increased 8% to 1,039, according to Greater Chattanooga Realtors.
Yet the influx of homes hasn’t pushed prices lower. The median sales price increased 1.2% from $346,000 to $350,000.
In other words, Chattanooga buyers have more choices. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they can afford them.
More homes, but at what price?
The Chattanooga region had 4.4 months of housing inventory in June, up 15.8% from a year earlier and nearly identical to the 4.5-month supply nationally.
But Chattanooga arrived there much faster.
Nationally, 1.55 million homes were available for sale heading into June, up just 0.6% from a year earlier. Chattanooga’s inventory increased nearly 26%.
Homes are also lingering a little longer locally, with days on market increasing 2% to 51 days.
Those numbers paint a different picture from the pandemic housing frenzy, when historically low mortgage rates collided with a severe shortage of homes and buyers routinely competed for whatever came onto the market.
Still, Lautz cautioned against interpreting rising inventory as evidence that the housing shortage is over.
National inventory has only recently climbed above its February 2020 level, she said, and housing supply was already inadequate then. More importantly in Chattanooga, the homes being added don’t necessarily match the incomes of the people looking to buy them.
“If you’re earning less than $75,000, you’re probably still going to have a hard time finding a property even as inventory is climbing,” Lautz said.
Homes at the higher end of the market are becoming available and continuing to sell, she said. The shortage becomes more pronounced at lower price points.
“If you look at the lower end – the more affordable end of the spectrum where a school teacher or a first responder would be shopping for a home – those are the homes that are going to be in short supply,” she said.
Cheaper than the nation doesn’t mean cheap
On paper, Chattanooga still has a considerable affordability advantage over the country.
The region’s $350,000 median sales price in June was $79,300 below the national median existing-home price of $429,300.
Yet prices are moving in almost lockstep. Chattanooga’s median increased 1.2% from a year earlier, while the national median rose 1.3%.
Another comparison Lautz presented illustrates both Chattanooga’s advantage and its affordability problem.
NAR estimates a household needs an annual income of approximately $82,000 to qualify for the median-priced Chattanooga home. Nationally, the figure is $109,000.
There’s an important catch: The calculations assume a 20% down payment.
“The average first-time home buyer is not going to necessarily have 20% down,” Lautz said.
That leaves Chattanooga in a curious position. It can be significantly more affordable than the nation while remaining beyond the reach of many households earning local wages.
For homeowners already inside the market, however, the story looks much different.
Tennessee home prices appreciated about 73% between the first quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2026, compared with roughly 50% nationally, according to data Lautz presented.
The extraordinary pandemic-era gains have slowed. Lautz said annual appreciation of about 3% to 5% is historically normal. Tennessee’s recent rate was around 3.5%, compared with about 1.5% nationally.
For buyers, that moderation offers some relief. But prices are normalizing from a much higher starting point.
And the purchase price isn’t the only expense that’s climbed.
The rising cost of staying put
Between 2019 and 2024, the median monthly cost of homeownership in the Chattanooga metropolitan area increased 32%, according to NAR calculations of American Community Survey data.
Median annual home insurance costs rose 36.2% during that period, while median annual property taxes increased 15.2%.
The increases were especially sharp from 2023 to 2024. Home insurance costs rose 18.5%, property taxes climbed 11.9% and total monthly owner costs increased 17.8%.
Lautz said those expenses complicate the traditional discussion of housing affordability, which often centers on home prices and mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates, however, remain a formidable part of the equation.
Rates were in the upper 6% range at the time of Lautz’s presentation. Buyers with strong finances might find something around 6.5%, she said, but the days of routine mortgages below 4% are gone.
At least for now.
Millions of homeowners still hold those low-rate loans, creating the so-called lock-in effect: Selling a house can mean surrendering a mortgage below 4% and borrowing for the next one at close to 7%.
But Lautz said the effect should gradually weaken as time passes and more homeowners carry newer, higher-rate mortgages.
Even a modest decline in rates could make a noticeable difference in Chattanooga.
NAR estimates that if mortgage rates fell to 6%, 978 additional buyers could enter the local market over the following 18 months.
“There is plenty of demand out there,” Lautz said, pointing to young adults who want to buy but have been priced out, as well as existing homeowners who might be willing to move if borrowing becomes cheaper.
A migration story
About midway through her presentation, Lautz placed a photograph of a wildebeest on the screen.
For anyone who remembered the mass migration depicted in “The Lion King,” her transition wasn’t difficult to spot.
It was time to talk about migration.
Tennessee added about 64,000 residents, or 0.9% of its population, according to 2025 Census estimates Lautz presented. The state has also posted strong employment growth since 2020, factors that Lautz said have helped attract new residents and support housing demand.
Those are statewide trends rather than Chattanooga-specific figures, but they help explain why more housing supply doesn’t automatically translate into falling prices: Demand hasn’t gone away. And some buyers are well positioned to compete for the homes that become available.
About 36.8% of Chattanooga buyers paid cash, according to data Lautz presented, and their median age was 40.
Nationally, the share of repeat primary-residence buyers paying cash has doubled from 15% before the pandemic to 30%, Lautz said. Those purchases are often associated with older homeowners able to tap years of equity or other financial assets.
Chattanooga’s cash buyers stand out because they are younger than their national counterparts.
Generations under one roof
Another safari discovery gave Lautz a way into the generational divide shaping the housing market.
Across South Africa, she’d noticed termite mounds that towered more than 6 feet high. Her guide told her some could be hundreds of years old, passed from one generation of termites to the next.
“It’s a generational transfer of a house,” Lautz said.
Generational transfer is increasingly relevant to American housing, too.
Older homeowners may enter a purchase with decades of accumulated equity. Younger buyers trying to get into their first home often have no comparable asset to draw upon.
Nationally, first-time buyers now account for just 21% of all buyers, an all-time low, according to NAR. Their median age has climbed to 40, compared with a historical median of about 30.
Housing prices and a shortage of entry-level homes are only part of the explanation, Lautz said. High rents, student debt and childcare expenses can also make saving for a home difficult.
Then there’s the persistent belief that buying requires a 20% down payment.
It doesn’t.
Lautz said some mortgage programs allow buyers to put down as little as 3% or even less, but the 20% misconception continues to keep some would-be homeowners on the sidelines.
None of that, however, changes the underlying math of today’s market: smaller down payments still have to contend with higher home prices, mortgage rates and ownership costs.
Wrapping up
By the end of Lautz’s presentation, the safari had provided a colorful cast of zebras and wildebeests, elephants and termite colonies, birds and a leopard guarding her prize in a tree.
Behind the safari imagery, however, was a clearer picture of where Chattanooga’s housing market stands.
Buyers have more homes to choose from, properties are taking longer to sell and price growth has slowed dramatically from the pandemic years. At the same time, Chattanooga remains more affordable than the nation as a whole.
For homeowners who bought years ago, the market has produced substantial wealth, while for someone trying to buy a first home on a moderate income, that same opportunity can seem out of reach.
Chattanooga may have more homes to sell. The larger question is whether it has enough homes its residents can afford to buy.